For years, many immigration attorneys approached E-2 renewals the same way.
If the business was operating, generating revenue, and generally performing as expected, there was often little reason to revisit the financial projections that accompanied the original petition.
After all, the company had already proven itself.
But is that still the best approach?
A recent discussion at an AILA conference attended by our team gave us reason to pause.
A well-known immigration attorney shared a case involving an E-2 renewal. The business was doing well. The company was operating successfully and was aligned with the expectations set forth in the original business plan.
Then something unexpected happened.
The adjudicating officer requested a new business plan.
The attorney was surprised. Many of us in the room were too.
The officer’s explanation was simple:
Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
That statement has stuck with us ever since.
Not because the law suddenly changed after that case.
And not because one officer’s opinion automatically represents every adjudicator.
Rather, it caught our attention because it reflects a way of thinking that many attorneys may be encountering more frequently today.
Most practitioners would agree that the current administration has brought greater scrutiny to many employment-based immigration filings. Whether you are handling E-2 renewals, L-1 petitions, or other business immigration matters, there is a growing sense that officers are taking a closer look at the evidence presented to them.
Against that backdrop, the officer’s comment becomes particularly interesting.
If the government is looking not only at what a business has accomplished, but also at whether it is positioned for future success, are projections prepared years ago still telling the strongest story?
That is a question more attorneys may want to consider as they prepare renewal filings.
The Business Isn’t the Same Company Anymore
Think about where most E-2 businesses are when the original business plan is prepared.
Many are still in the startup phase.
Some have not opened yet.
Others have been operating for only a short time.
The financial projections are built on research, industry benchmarks, market assumptions, and the owner’s best estimates.
That is exactly what they should be based on.
But fast forward three, four, or five years.
The company now has something far more valuable than assumptions.
It has an operating history.
It has customers.
It has financial statements.
It has payroll records.
It has firsthand knowledge of its market.
The business owner knows things today that simply could not have been known when the original projections were created.
So why continue telling the future story of the company using numbers that were developed before the company had a track record?
The Credibility Question
Put yourself in the officer’s shoes.
Would you rather evaluate the future of a business based on projections prepared before the company opened?
Or projections built using several years of actual operating data?
The answer seems obvious.
Yet many renewal cases still rely heavily on forecasts prepared years earlier.
The issue is not whether the original projections were right or wrong.
The issue is whether they still reflect reality.
Businesses evolve.
Markets change.
Labor costs increase.
Competition shifts.
Customer behavior changes.
A business that looked one way at launch often looks very different several years later.
Updated financial projections acknowledge that reality.
More importantly, they demonstrate that the petitioner understands it.
In a period of heightened scrutiny, credibility becomes even more important. Updated projections show that the business owner is not relying on assumptions made years ago. Instead, the future outlook is supported by actual operating results, current market conditions, and the realities the company faces today.
Controlling the Narrative
One of the biggest advantages of updated projections is that they allow attorneys to tell the complete story.
Perhaps the company exceeded expectations.
Perhaps it grew more slowly than anticipated.
Perhaps market conditions forced adjustments along the way.
Whatever happened, updated projections create an opportunity to explain it.
Without that explanation, the government may be left to draw its own conclusions.
Most attorneys would agree that it is better to answer questions before they are asked than after concerns have already been raised.
A Simple Question Worth Asking
Every case is different, and only the attorney handling the matter can determine the best strategy.
But given what was shared at the AILA conference, coupled with the increased scrutiny many attorneys believe they are seeing under the current administration, it may be worth asking yourself a simple question:
If an adjudicator wants evidence of where the business is headed next, are projections created when the company was still a startup the strongest evidence available?
Or would updated projections supported by years of real-world performance present a more credible case?
As scrutiny continues to evolve, that may become an increasingly important distinction.
At Visa Business Plans, we work closely with immigration attorneys to prepare updated business plans and financial projections that reflect current business realities, actual operating results, and realistic future expectations. Our goal is not to produce optimistic numbers. Our goal is to provide attorneys with a credible business narrative grounded in evidence and supported by the company’s real-world experience.
With more than 15 years in the business immigration arena and experience supporting thousands of investor visa cases, we have seen firsthand how business realities evolve after a company launches. Our role is to help attorneys present those realities in a way that is logical, credible, and supported by data, allowing adjudicators to evaluate the business based on where it is today and where it is realistically headed tomorrow.
Contact us today to get startedThe information provided in this blog is intended solely for informational purposes. While we strive to offer accurate and up-to-date content, it should not be considered legal advice. Immigration laws and regulations are subject to change, and individual circumstances can vary widely. For personalized guidance and legal advice regarding your specific immigration situation, we strongly recommend consulting with a qualified immigration attorney who can provide you with tailored assistance and ensure compliance with current laws and regulations.
Visa Business Plans is led by Marco Scanu, a certified coach from the University of Miami with a globally-based practice coaching Fortune 1000 company executives, entrepreneurs, as well as professionals in four different continents. Mr. Scanu advises clients on turnaround strategies and crisis management.
Mr. Scanu received a bachelor’s degree in Business Administration (Cum Laude) from the University of Florida and an MBA in Management from Bocconi University in Milan, Italy. Mr. Scanu was also a Visiting Scholar at Michigan State University under the prestigious H. Humphrey Fellowship (Fulbright program) with a focus on Entrepreneurship, Venture Capital, and high-growth enterprises.
At present, Mr. Scanu is the managing partner and CEO at Visa Business Plans, a Miami-based boutique consulting firm providing attorneys and investors with business planning services in the areas of U.S. and Canadian immigration, SBA loans, and others.
If you are looking for any of the following, we can help you!
EB-5 Visa Business Plans
EB5 Business Plans
L1A Business Plans
L Visa Business Plans
L-1 Visa Business Plans
E2 Business Plans
E2 Visa Business Plans
E1 Business Plans
E1 Visa Business Plans
Business Plan for Investor Visa
Business Plans for Immigration and Visa Purposes
Business Plan for Visa Application
Market Analysis
Feasibility Studies
Investor Visas Business Plans
NIW Business Plans
NIW Personal Endeavor Plan
NIW Personal Statement
EB-2 Visa Business Plans
Visa Business Plans